Mod4Unit4

Module 4 · Unit 4 of 6

Monitoring, evaluation, and the project logic

MCC compacts are built on a results-based approach. M&E is not an add-on at the end of a project — it is built into the compact design from the start. Understanding the project logic helps every MCA staff member see how their work connects to the results the compact is designed to achieve.

The project logic diagram is the foundation of M&E in a compact. It sets out the causal pathway from activities through outputs and outcomes to impact — the theory of how the investment will unlock growth. Indicators, targets, and evaluation methods are all derived from this logic.

“The project logic diagram reflects the proposed project investments and economic benefits streams and sets forth the causal pathways through which the proposed activities will achieve the project objective.”

Why this matters for implementation staff

If you deliver an output that is not connected to the project logic, it cannot be measured — and if it cannot be measured, it cannot be reported as a result. Activities that drift from the logic waste resources without advancing the compact’s goals. Every MCA staff member should be able to articulate how their work connects to the project objective.

Module 4 · Unit 4 of 6

Reading the project logic: inputs to impact

The project logic connects what is invested (inputs and activities) to what is produced (outputs), what changes (outcomes), and what economic effect is achieved (impact). Each level of the logic is distinct — and each requires different types of measurement.

Inputs
MCC funding, technical expertise, MCA staff capacity
Activities
Road construction, training delivery, policy reform support
Outputs
Km of road rehabilitated; number of people trained; policy enacted
Outcomes
Reduced transport costs; improved access to markets; better business environment
Impact
Increased household income; unlocked economic growth
What M&E measures at each level

Output indicators measure what was directly delivered (the MCA controls these). Outcome indicators measure what changed as a result (the MCA influences but does not fully control). Impact is measured through rigorous evaluation — typically a principal evaluation comparing beneficiaries to a counterfactual. The MCA is primarily accountable for outputs and intermediate outcomes.

Module 4 · Unit 4 of 6

Indicators: measuring what matters

Every project in the compact has a set of indicators defined in the M&E Plan — the annex to the compact agreement. Indicators are the specific, measurable proxies by which progress and results are tracked.

Output indicator
Measures the direct product of activities — what was built, delivered, or completed under the contract.
e.g. “Kilometres of road rehabilitated to standard” or “Number of beneficiaries receiving training”
Outcome indicator
Measures changes in behaviour, access, use, or conditions resulting from the outputs — typically among beneficiaries.
e.g. “Average vehicle operating costs on project road segments” or “Percentage of trained participants employed in target sector”
Evaluation / impact indicator
Measures longer-term economic effects — usually through a principal evaluation comparing the project group against a counterfactual. The MCA cannot control these results.
e.g. “Household income levels in project communities vs. comparison group” or “Business investment rates in targeted zones”
Baselines and targets

Every indicator has a baseline (the value at the start of the compact) and an annual target and end-of-program target. Baselines must be drawn from documented sources. Targets must be realistic — they are public commitments. When project design changes, targets may need revision — which requires an M&E Plan amendment, not a quiet adjustment to reported actuals.

Module 4 · Unit 4 of 6

The Indicator Tracking Table: quarterly accountability

The Indicator Tracking Table (ITT) is the MCA’s primary quarterly tool for reporting M&E results to MCC. It is submitted as part of every QDRP and is used for public reporting and MCC senior management communications.

What the ITT contains
  • Indicator name and classification
  • Level (output / outcome / impact)
  • Unit of measurement
  • Baseline value
  • Annual targets and end-of-program target
  • Actuals for current and all previous quarters
  • Progress towards annual and final targets
ITT update rules
  • Updated every quarter with current and previous quarter actuals
  • QDRP is due 20 days before quarter end — so current quarter data is partial
  • Previous quarter data updated to end-of-quarter accuracy
  • Cannot update data older than one quarter directly
  • Older corrections require a HACR (Historical Actual Change Request)
  • Only indicators in the approved M&E Plan may appear in the ITT
Source documentation

ITT actuals must be supported by source documentation — the original data sources from which indicator values are drawn. These may include contractor completion certificates, survey data, administrative records, or inspection reports. Source documentation is submitted alongside the ITT as part of the QDRP. Actuals without supporting documentation are not accepted.

Module 4 · Unit 4 of 6

Evaluation: learning whether the compact worked

Monitoring tells you whether activities were completed and outputs delivered. Evaluation tells you whether those outputs actually produced the intended results — and why or why not. MCC requires rigorous evaluation for all compact programs.

  • 1
    Principal evaluation: A rigorous impact evaluation — typically with a comparison group — designed to measure whether the project caused the intended outcomes. Planned during compact development. Often uses a baseline survey, midline, and endline to track change over time.
  • 2
    Performance evaluation: Assesses the quality and efficiency of implementation — whether activities were delivered as planned, on time, and to standard. Focuses on learning for program management.
  • 3
    Data quality reviews: MCC reviews the quality of data underlying ITT actuals — the methodology, collection process, and reliability of source documentation. Poor data quality can result in actuals being rejected.
  • M&E is not just the M&E team’s job

    Every output produced under a compact contract needs to be verifiable against an indicator. Project managers must ensure that contracts specify verifiable deliverables. Finance must ensure that payments are linked to certified, measurable outputs. Procurement must ensure that contract terms support output verification. When the M&E framework cannot be applied because outputs were not designed with measurement in mind, results cannot be demonstrated — and MCC cannot justify the investment.

    Module 4 · Unit 4 of 6

    Your role in results accountability

    M&E is a shared responsibility. The M&E team leads — but every division produces the evidence that makes results measurement possible.

  • M
    M&E team: Owns the M&E Plan and ITT. Coordinates data collection and source documentation. Prepares the M&E sections of the QDRP. Manages evaluation activities. Submits HACRs for historical corrections.
  • P
    Project teams: Produce the output data — completion certificates, inspection records, training participant lists. These are the primary source documentation for output indicators. Delays in issuing certificates delay ITT updates.
  • PM
    Procurement: Ensures contracts include clear, measurable deliverables aligned with M&E indicators. Contract terms that make outputs ambiguous or hard to verify create M&E problems downstream.
  • F
    Finance: Links payments to certified deliverables. Payments made without verification undermine both financial accountability and results reporting.
  • E
    ESP: Social and environmental monitoring generates data for ESP-related indicators. RAP implementation progress and community engagement outcomes feed into the M&E framework.
  • Coming up in Unit 5

    Environmental and Social Performance obligations are woven into every stage of compact delivery — from design through construction through closeout. Unit 5 covers what the MCA is legally committed to, and what happens when ESP requirements are not met.